A Turning Point for Syria and the U.S.

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a historic shift in the Middle East. For decades, Assad’s brutal regime dominated Syria, supported heavily by Russia and Iran. Now that his government has collapsed, new opportunities and risks arise for the United States, including:

1. Weakening Russian and Iranian influence in the region.
2. Strengthening efforts to combat the Islamic State (ISIS).
3. Potential progress on securing the release of missing American journalist Austin Tice.

While Assad’s removal offers strategic benefits, the U.S. faces the challenge of engaging with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamic group leading the transitional government, which remains designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S.

The Geopolitical Impact: Russia and Iran Weakened

Assad’s regime served as a cornerstone for Russian and Iranian influence in the Middle East.

• Russia’s Loss: Russia has been a key backer of Assad, intervening militarily in 2015 to prop up his collapsing regime. Assad’s fall highlights the limits of Russian power, especially as Moscow remains bogged down in its war with Ukraine.
• Iran’s Setback: Iran invested heavily in supporting Assad, deploying ground forces and financing militias. His removal weakens Tehran’s regional foothold and disrupts its network of influence stretching from Iran to Lebanon.

Steven Simon, former National Security Council official, noted that Assad’s collapse is “a serious blow to Russia,” which indirectly strengthens the U.S. position.

The Fight Against ISIS: A New Opportunity

Assad’s downfall also creates a chance for the U.S. to solidify its campaign against ISIS. Though weakened, the terrorist group remains active in Syria. The U.S. has kept 900 troops stationed in northeastern Syria to prevent an ISIS resurgence.

Following Assad’s collapse, the U.S. launched airstrikes targeting ISIS camps and operatives, hitting over 75 targets. Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla of U.S. Central Command stated:

“We will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria.”

With Assad gone, the new transitional government and Syrian Defense Forces have no interest in allowing ISIS to regain strength. This alignment provides the U.S. with more partners in its anti-ISIS efforts.

Qutaiba Idlbi, a Middle East expert, explained:

“No one is interested in keeping ISIS as a card on the table.”

While ISIS may not disappear completely, its influence is likely to diminish further under Syria’s new leadership.

The HTS Dilemma: A U.S.-Designated Terror Group in Charge

The biggest challenge for the United States lies in dealing with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group that toppled Assad. HTS was designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. in 2018 due to its links with al-Qaida.

However, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani has publicly distanced the group from its extremist roots, emphasizing:

1. Protection of minority rights.
2. Efforts to stabilize the region.

The Biden administration now faces the difficult decision of whether to lift HTS’s terror designation to engage with the transitional government. Despite the group’s past, current U.S. policy prioritizes stability in Syria and combatting ISIS.

“We will assess not just their words, but their actions,” said President Joe Biden.

The Search for Austin Tice: A Renewed Effort

For the United States, Assad’s fall also brings renewed hope in the effort to locate and secure the release of Austin Tice, an American journalist who disappeared in Syria in 2012.

Tice, a former U.S. Marine, was last seen in a 43-second video showing him blindfolded and held captive by armed men. For years, the U.S. government accused Assad’s regime of detaining him, though Syria denied this claim.

Now, with Assad out of power, U.S. authorities are actively searching locations where Tice is believed to have been held. Idlbi stated that securing these sites is a top priority for U.S. operatives on the ground.

“This transition gives us a chance to learn the truth about Austin’s whereabouts,” said President Biden.

A Balancing Act: Risks and Rewards for the U.S.

While Assad’s removal creates opportunities, the U.S. must tread carefully to ensure the transitional government aligns with American interests. Risks include:

1. HTS’s Extremist History: Despite public commitments to moderation, HTS’s past links to terrorism cannot be ignored.
2. Regional Instability: A power vacuum in Syria could spark new conflicts among rebel groups, jihadist factions, and foreign actors.
3. ISIS Resurgence: Continued U.S. vigilance is necessary to prevent ISIS from exploiting the chaos.

Nevertheless, the collapse of Assad’s regime marks a potential turning point for Syria and a strategic win for the United States.

 A New Chapter for Syria and the U.S.

The end of Bashar al-Assad’s regime represents both opportunity and challenge for the United States. By weakening Russia and Iran, creating stronger partnerships to combat ISIS, and opening the door to securing Austin Tice’s release, the U.S. stands to benefit significantly from Syria’s transition.

However, engaging with the new leadership—especially HTS—requires careful diplomacy and a focus on long-term stability. As President Biden emphasized, the ultimate goal is a Syria where its people determine their future, free from dictatorship and extremism.